RMHI Client Letter, March 2025
Curbing Our Enthusiasm
This past December and January I became quite concerned that a significant market top was forming in US stocks. This was quite a change since I’d been positive for over the past two years.
RMHI manages client assets with a process designed to reduct risk and preserve account valuations when the odds are high for a significant market decline. Alternatively, we increase stock exposure when markets begin to show positive trends. We are not short term oriented and our ideal is to own a core group of stocks during an entire cyclical bull market run.
I recently was talking to my realtor as we are in the process of selling our home in Allenspark. He told me that he began to buy stocks in the early 1980’s and has never sold any since. I complimented him but told him that he is the exception to the rule. The average investor eventually reaches a level of fear then panics and sells during periods of great stress in declining markets. This is not a plan but a reaction that leads to eventual failure if done repeatedly.
Our process is in place to increase the odds of investor success by protecting their account values during major market turns. I want everyone to be a success story.
Based on my data I believe US markets are in the midst of potential 25%-30% decline. My slow moving monthly models have turned negative. It will take several months for them to turn positive so patience is very important. The average Bear market for stocks is approximately 9+ months. In other words, based on my data I don’t think this is a garden variety market selloff.
Markets and investors need a sense of stability going forward. Obviously this is not the case at present. My guess is that markets are discounting a future of instability and irrational behavior from Trump.
At present we have sharply reduced our equity exposure: Spotify, Broadcom, Cintas, Arista, FICO, Microsoft, Nvidia, Comfort Systems, Meta, Moody’s, Mastercard and Vertiv Holdings have been sold. We remain holders of: Constellation Software.
We have approximately 9% exposure to stocks. The only additions have been an increase in US Treasuries and Gold in client accounts. Gold is a hedge against currency devaluation in the USD. Plus, an ancient form of currency during crisis.

Bitcoin is rapidly losing its potential and reputation except to the zealots. The manipulation by the new administration is so plainly obvious. Bitcoin is a risk asset and has not shown an ability to hold value during market duress. Bitcoin promoters like Michael Taylor of Microstrategy only offer self-serving cheerleading opinions to bring in new buyers.
What strikes me is how deliberate this potential economic downturn is being generated. It’s a deliberate trashing of the economy. The administration is gaslighting the effects of Tariff’s, as it is plainly a tax. A tax that is inevitably paid by the consumer and not the “government”.
Its my belief that the combination of austerity measures being enacted by the current President: DOGE, Federal employee layoffs, Tariff’s plus reciprocal Tariff’s, deportations will create a slowdown in growth for the US economy.
These are amongst the most cruel ways to reduce inflation. It appears they want to slow demand in the economy by reducing federal benefits and increasing federal unemployment. These benefits would include federal employment (DOGE) plus cutting Medicare, food assistance and low income housing.
I do not believe they’re considering or care about the impact of the increased strain on basic assistance programs (which are being cut) which are in place to support the lowest levels of society.
Meanwhile there will be tax cuts, reduced IRS oversight and deregulation.

Four weeks ago the GDPNow forecast was +3.9%. Two weeks ago it was +2.3%. There has to be a certain level of genius to inherit a healthy economy growing between 2% and 3% and plunge to negative growth.
How far a market declines is anyone’s guess. Previous post 2008-09 declines fell to the 200 week moving average for the S&P 500. That would imply a further 17% decline from here.

Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Indicator is not a timing mechanism but an indication of risk. Stocks are not cheap and there is a disproportionate balance between upside potential and downside risk.

Further evidence of the degree of risk and odds of a significant market decline come from 2023 Charles H. Dow Award Winner Andrew Thrasher, CMT and his “The 5% Canary” study. Canary referring to an early warning indicator.
Thrasher found significant evidence of the relationship between the speed of an initial market decline of 5% and the propensity for much larger declines. In other words, a 5% in 15 days or less led generally led to larger losses going forward.
Red dots in the chart above met the Canary criteria. Fast declines led to predictably increasing losses. Our recent decline met the 5% Canary criteria which predicts more declines to come.

Thank you for reading
Brad Pappas
March 18, 2025
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As always, past performance is no guarantee of future success or returns. In fact future returns may be negative or unprofitable. Accounts managed by RMHI are not diversified. Meaning they own less companies than a diversified fund. Thus the portfolios may be more exposed to individual stock volatility than a diversified fund.