October 2018 Client Letter

Client Letter, October 8, 2018

 

Quick Summary: The end of an era may be at hand. The rally in bond prices that dates back to 1981 appears to be over. I’m not convinced it’s over for good but that’s an argument to be made later on.

In the meantime, falling bond prices represent a headwind for stocks and could remain so until bond prices find a short term floor. This headwind accelerated the decline in stocks on October 4th and 5th. This prompted me to raise cash from holdings that either had losses or were laggard holdings. A portion of cash was used to purchase hedges to offset any future stock price declines.

It’s most likely that this is just a short or intermediate termed decline in stocks as the long term trend remains firmly in place. Part of the purpose of quick market declines is to make investors fearful and uneasy, one reason we use hedges to cushion declines.

 

Chart 1: This chart below shows that the long term trend to lower interest rates is being threatened. This can’t be a surprise with the rapidly expanding deficits and very low unemployment. But as I’ve highlighted with arrows: it’s not uncommon for interest rates to rise in the latter stages of the business cycle, only to fall hard when the Fed raises rates enough to trigger recession. I don’t see this time as any different. My best guess is the current bond weakness is a future buying opportunity later in 2019.

Socially Responsible Investing, RMHI

 

Chart 2: Proxy for the 30-Year T-bond is the TLT. The chart below is inverse to Chart 1 above. Any further weakness with a close below $113 could accelerate the bond sell-off which would trigger more stock market weakness in the short term.

 

Chart 3: A direct beneficiary of the decline in bond prices is setting itself up for a very good risk/reward trade. As the bond market declines, the TBT will rally higher.

 

Chart 4: Internal market strength was showing an important discrepancy with the Advance/Decline line which did not confirm the most recent market peak as it should. This non-confirmation gives us a clue that internally at present the stock market is not very healthy and is in need of a purge.

 

My guess is that the selling is not finished. We may bounce here for a day or two, but if the bond market continues to be weak, the Nasdaq Composite (Chart 5) could visit 7500 or so quickly. Selling would likely be contained at that level. Odds are high this is not the start of a bear market for stocks.

 

Chart 6: Our long term primary trend indicator remains quite positive at present. Market tops are usually made by a rolling-over process rather than a mountain top peak. See my estimates for business cycle – stock market peak below.

Parlor game guesses for cycle peaks

Based on the Fed’s rate hike projections, we’ll reach inversion by February 2019. The Fed has given no signal to indicate they’ll declare a halt to rate hikes which could push the date to later next year. In fact the most recent jobs data makes me think they’ll hit the brakes hard next year.

So, based on an inversion in February 2019 we can make some recession date assumptions based on the past 9 yield curve inversions dating back to 1957:

The shortest lead time from inversion to recession has been 8 months: October 2019. Median lead time from inversion to recession has been 12 months: February 2020.

Longest lead time from inversion to recession has been 20 months: October 2020.

Understand the recession data is based on NBER declared recessions and they date the start of a recession many months in hindsight. But we can make reasonable estimates based on yield curve inversion dates.

The stock market is a forward looking barometer meaning that the markets look ahead into the future. This means the US stock market will peak and begin to rollover before the recession starts.

Based upon data from 1957, the US stock market has peaked on average 5 months before the start of a recession.

Earliest estimated stock market peak is May 2019. Likeliest estimated stock market peak is September 2019. Latest estimated stock market peak is May 2020.

Thanks again to all of you for your trust. As an investment manager, my goal is to avoid the dogmatic approach, be flexible and neutral to market behavior. Any investor who decides to get into an argument and mansplain to the market will emerged bruised and poorer for the experience.

All the best,
Brad Pappas

Disclaimer; Socially Responsible Investing

 

 

 

 

 

April 2018 Client Letter

The Post Parabolic Blues
4/8/2018

Since the 10% decline in the S&P 500 index in late January I’ve been using my Bull Market playbook to deal with a decline. Technically speaking we are still in a Bull Market but our Bull status is looking more precarious by the day. The Bull Market playbook means I’m looking for a double bottom or retest of the market lows off the initial sell-off. Secondly, I’d be looking to buy stocks on signs of a successful retest and rally.

Friday’s 2.19% decline was especially disheartening since it wiped out three days of gains. Stocks had been showing signs of recovery by trying to build a base from which to rally. Previously, markets were appeased by the story that the White House was using the tariff threats as a negotiating tool. But Friday’s news showed that markets are not buying that story any more. This is a dangerous and unpredictable situation that leaves any investor unhedged in stocks vulnerable to policy mistakes and reckless statements from the White House or cabinet.

The second leg down rallies have been relatively weak with reduced volume while declines have been larger in magnitude and increased volume (not good). This reveals that large institutional investors are in a liquidation mode and are using rallies to sell rather than using declines to accumulate. This is Bear Market behavior and is giving me pause to reassess the likelihood of another another significant leg down for stocks and the possibility of a Bear Market.

Perhaps this weakness is the aftermath of the parabolic rise in stocks earlier this year? Plus the extreme readings of investor sentiment? It’s possible, but I’d argue that stocks and bonds are now reacting accordingly to an aggressive Federal Reserve and a much higher than average possibility of policy mistakes from the White House.

SPY Chart 1, Bull Market, Socially Responsible Investing

Chart 1

Chart 1 above, courtesy of Carl Swenlin of Decisionpoint, shows the importance of the $257 level for the “SPY” aka S&P 500 ETF. Both the 200 day moving average and the underlying trend line from the 2016 rally converge at nearly the same level.

There are also other important issues the world stock markets are contending with:

The global economic recovery is mature and slowing. Worldwide GDP data is showing clear signs of slowing.

Policy Errors: The tax cuts are the personification of fiscal irresponsibility and there’s no going back.

Trade Wars are “good and easy to win”. Investors aren’t fooled in the least by this rhetoric  (see Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act). We’ve never had a President who can just as easily talk up a stock market and talk it down with rhetoric within weeks. This is certainly a market headwind for stocks.

Yield Curve, Bull Market, Socially Responsible Investing

Chart 2

Aggressive Federal Reserve: The “Yield Curve” (shown above in Chart 2) is growing increasingly negative as short term interest rates are rising which will eventually kill the economic expansion. This causes investors to buy long term Treasury bonds. The higher short term yields and lower long term yield flatten the difference between short and long term rates which reduces the incentive for banks to lend.

The Yield Curve is a simple indicator and one of the most powerful tools to predict markets and the economy. Once the curve drops to .5 its “Goodnight Irene” for stocks and “Good Day Sunshine” for Treasury bonds. This is why we’ve recently added long term Treasury bonds to client portfolios.

If you’d like to learn more about the Yield Curve, there is an array of data from none other than the Federal Reserve:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/yield-curve- and-gdp-growth.aspx

Our Present Status: A sharp break in the price in Chart 1 below $257 without a rebound implies there is more selling ahead, which could be significant. Since my style of investing is based on reacting rather than predicting, I’d look for a $257 break to increase our existing hedges and further reduce stock holdings.

Should the price break below $257 not occur or occur briefly, I’d keep the status quo but expect the bottoming process to take longer than expected. I’d likely prefer to reduce stock holdings in strength until we see a positive change in market behavior.

Treasury bonds: My W.A.G. for Treasury Bonds and the economy is that the Yield Curve inverts in 2019 which will cause a full blown bear market in stocks and bull market in Treasury bonds. T-bonds could rally by more than 20% due to the reduced effect of lowering interest rates in an already low rate environment by the Fed. This could be followed by recession and bear market low by 2020.

Bottom Line: I’m agnostic to market direction as we can generate profits in accounts regardless of market trends. It’s the transition periods which we are possibly in that are tricky to assess. Once a new trend emerges, be it up or down, I’ll adapt and do my best to continue generating profits on your behalf.

Thank you,

Brad Pappas

 

Disclaimer, Socially Responsible Investing